Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.75 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the U.S. dollar.

With no significant economic data releases from the U.S., the situation favors yen buyers, which means the upward movement of USD/JPY observed in the first half of the day is likely to end. However, it is too early to rush into selling, as it remains uncertain whether traders will be willing to open short positions in a low-liquidity, low-volume market.

For today's intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY is advisable when the price reaches 149.89, with an upward target at 150.36. At 150.36, I plan to exit long positions and consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point correction. Any bullish movement is likely to remain within a corrective phase. Before entering a long position, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Another opportunity to buy USD/JPY arises if the price tests 149.60 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal, with an expected rise toward 149.89 and 150.36.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is viable after a break below 149.60, which could lead to a rapid decline. The key downward target is 149.07, where I plan to exit short positions and consider buying in the opposite direction for a 20-25 point correction. Market pressure could resume at any moment, so it's crucial to confirm that MACD is below the zero mark and beginning to decline before selling.

Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity arises if the price tests 149.89 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal, with an expected decline toward 149.60 and 149.07.

Key Chart Levels

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

The MACD indicator plays a crucial role in trade execution, with traders needing to monitor overbought and oversold conditions before entering positions.

Important Considerations for Beginner Forex Traders

When making trading decisions, it is essential to exercise caution, particularly before high-impact fundamental reports. It is generally safer to stay out of the market during major news releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

For those choosing to trade during news events, stop-loss orders should always be used to minimize potential losses. Without proper risk management, trading large volumes without stop-loss protection can quickly wipe out an account.

For consistent success, traders should adhere to a structured trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations are rarely profitable for intraday traders.