Analysis of Monday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

Unlike the EUR/USD pair, the GBP/USD attempted to maintain its upward movement during the U.S. trading session on Monday. However, the bulls' efforts to push the pound higher ultimately fell short. It's important for beginners to note that last week had very few events and reports that could have supported the British pound. Nevertheless, the currency rose every day. While this growth may seem illogical, it is happening because the correction on the daily timeframe is not yet complete, which has led to a new upward movement for the British pound. However, while the rally may seem significant on the hourly timeframe, it appears much weaker when viewed on the daily timeframe. The pair could remain in a corrective phase for several weeks or even longer, with intermittent upward movements that may be challenging to explain from a fundamental or macroeconomic perspective.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

Only one trading signal was formed on Monday in the 5-minute timeframe, which we did not even mark on the chart. Towards the end of the day, the pound suddenly gained momentum and started rising despite having no apparent reason. The price broke through the 1.2613 level but could not sustain the growth for long. By early Tuesday, the pound had already dropped back below 1.2613. This suggests that a downward retracement is forming after six consecutive days of gains.

Trading Strategy for Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD may begin a short-term downtrend, but all recent movements are part of a broader correction on the daily timeframe. From a medium-term perspective, we continue to expect a decline in the pound, targeting 1.1800, which we believe is the most logical outcome. The key question now is when the ongoing upward correction on the daily timeframe will conclude.

On Tuesday, GBP/USD could initiate a new wave of downward movement, as the price has been rising for six consecutive days without a solid fundamental basis. However, the short-term uptrend remains intact for now.

On the 5-minute timeframe, important trading levels for today include 1.2010, 1.2052, 1.2089-1.2107, 1.2164-1.2170, 1.2241-1.2270, 1.2301, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2723, and 1.2791-1.2798. In the UK, three significant economic reports are scheduled for release today: the unemployment rate, claimant count change, and wage growth. These are important indicators that could trigger a market reaction during the European trading session.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.