empty
01.04.2025 03:58 PM
Bitcoin caught in bull trap

The bottom shows no strength, the top has no desire. Even the so-called "smart money" is not rushing to buy Bitcoin, citing a confluence of negative factors. Tepid trading activity, a tense macroeconomic backdrop, and a lack of upside momentum have created what the market calls a "bull trap". If big players are holding back, what can we expect from smaller market participants?

Crypto market volume trends

This image is no longer relevant

In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin lost around 10% of its value — not a terrible performance compared to broader crypto assets. Ethereum plunged 45%, and Coinbase shares fell 31%. This marked the worst performance since 2022, when the FTX collapse sent shockwaves through the entire digital asset industry.

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum and other competitors largely due to increased attention from the White House. Donald Trump has announced the creation of a strategic reserve, and his family is launching mining ventures. They are clearly betting on a BTC/USD rally, but it is too early to call. In the futures market, hedging is ramping up to protect against a drop below the psychologically crucial $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the spread between spot and derivatives has dipped into negative territory, signaling a bearish market tone.

BTC futures vs spot market premium

This image is no longer relevant

Persistent geopolitical instability, looming risks of a US stagflation or recession, and the potential escalation of trade tariffs are casting a shadow over BTC/USD. Bitcoin remains mired in consolidation, and even if it manages to break out, there is no guarantee that it will be to the upside.

Much depends on how equity markets respond to "America's Liberation Day," as Trump has dubbed April 2. Two scenarios are in play: either the White House enacts universal 20% tariffs, or it goes with so-called reciprocal tariffs on selected imports. The former could shock markets and trigger a sell-off in riskier assets. The latter could extend the S&P 500's recent rally and throw Bitcoin bulls a much-needed lifeline.

This image is no longer relevant

In short, the fate of Bitcoin — and that of other assets — remains in the hands of Donald Trump. How aggressive will he be with protectionism? Will he offer exemptions, sparing some countries from the tariff blacklist? The answers are just days away. "Liberation Day" is approaching.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, bulls are trying to form and activate a combination of reversal patterns — Anti-Turtles and 1-2-3. A successful test of the $84,800 resistance level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to building long Bitcoin positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

U.S. Inflation Data: What to Know and What to Expect

A highly anticipated March inflation report from the U.S. is expected today, with analysts predicting a slowdown, partly due to declining energy prices—which has brought some relief to consumers. According

Jakub Novak 12:09 2025-04-10 UTC+2

China Plans Emergency Meeting and a Strong Response to the U.S.

According to media reports, China's top leadership is set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss additional economic stimulus measures following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariff hikes

Jakub Novak 12:07 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Trump Suspends Tariffs for 90 Days but Raises Rates on China Even Further

President Donald Trump announced yesterday a 90-day suspension of tariff increases that had affected dozens of trade partners, while simultaneously raising tariffs on China to 125%. The president's policy shift

Jakub Novak 11:57 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Wall Street responding to president's call

Where there's smoke, there's fire. At the start of the second week of April, a rumor spread on social media about a 90-day delay in US tariffs, causing markets

Marek Petkovich 10:58 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Trump Maneuvers in Trade War With China (Potential for Continued Recovery in #SPX and AUD/USD)

The U.S. President continues maneuvering actively, engaging in geopolitics, economics, and global financial markets. Investors are asking: What happened on Wednesday? Why did the White House suddenly announce a truce

Pati Gani 09:56 2025-04-10 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 10? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but the U.S. inflation report still holds some relevance for traders. At the moment, inflation has limited influence because virtually everyone

Paolo Greco 06:49 2025-04-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview. April 10: Trump Meets His Match

The GBP/USD currency pair showed gains and losses throughout Wednesday. The afternoon decline once again raised some questions, though market movements in recent months have lacked much logic. The market

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-04-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview. April 10: From Prince to Pauper

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Wednesday, once again failing to settle below the moving average line. Donald Trump keeps announcing new tariffs — or previously announced

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-04-10 UTC+2

The Dollar – A Toxic Currency

Trouble often comes in pairs or groups. The decline of American exceptionalism is only one of the challenges facing EUR/USD bears. The main currency pair remains resilient and occasionally goes

Marek Petkovich 00:59 2025-04-10 UTC+2

GBP/JPY: Down, Only Down

The pound is plummeting against the yen. The cross has dropped by over a thousand points in just one week, reflecting the British currency's weakness and the yen's "crisis resilience."

Irina Manzenko 00:59 2025-04-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.