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04.03.2025 12:50 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold has been showing positive momentum for the second consecutive day. Bulls have pushed the price above the key $2900 level, driven by geopolitical risks and concerns over the economic consequences of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which could trigger a global trade war. This remains the primary factor supporting demand for precious metals.

However, expectations that trade tariffs could once again fuel inflation—forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer—may limit gold's upward potential and revive demand for the U.S. dollar.

To determine the next directional move for gold, market participants should await the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday before making further trading decisions.

From a technical perspective, successfully overcoming the $2900 psychological level reinforces the outlook for continued growth. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, supporting the emergence of new buyers on pullbacks. Further upside movement could lift XAU/USD toward an intermediate resistance at $2934, with the next major target being the record high of $2956, reached last Monday.

On the other hand, a decline below the $2900 mark could find support in the $2875–$2880 level, where buyers may step in again. A further drop below this area toward $2855 could trigger additional selling pressure, accelerating losses toward the key $2800 level, with an intermediate stop at $2834.

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Irina Yanina,
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