Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.0827 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points before stabilizing.

Positive macroeconomic data from Germany provided support for the euro, reinforcing expectations of economic stability in the Eurozone. Investors interpreted the rise in industrial production as a sign of recovery, following a period of instability caused by geopolitical factors and the energy crisis. However, despite this optimism, caution should be exercised when buying at highs. The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring incoming data, assessing the need for further monetary policy easing. Strong economic indicators could push the ECB toward interest rate cuts.

Since there are no U.S. economic reports today, the second half of the session may see range-bound trading with low volatility, making it more reasonable to follow the trend.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the euro is possible if the price reaches 1.0881 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0927. At 1.0927, I plan to exit long positions and sell the euro for a 30–35 point pullback. Further euro growth is expected in line with the trend.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0849 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The expected targets are 1.0881 and 1.0927.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the euro is planned if the price falls to 1.0849 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0810, where I plan to exit shorts and buy for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure could return if buyers fail to hold the price at the daily high.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0881, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside, targeting 1.0849 and 1.0810.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Suggested Take Profit level or an area to exit long positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Suggested Take Profit level or an area to exit short positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Exercise caution when making trading decisions. Before major economic reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. Always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapidly losing your entire deposit, especially if you use large trading volumes and ignore money management principles.

A clear trading plan is essential for success. Following a structured approach, such as the one outlined above, is far more effective than making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.