Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.41 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I decided not to buy the dollar.

A similar situation happened with the 155.14 level—when this level was updated, the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero line, so I decided to hold off on selling as well.

Further trading will likely develop within a sideways channel, as most traders are currently focused not on the Japanese yen or the state of the U.S. economy, but rather on trade tariffs and the new conditions that Donald Trump is ready to propose for European and Asian countries. Job openings and labor turnover data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may influence the pair's direction only if there's a significant divergence from economists' forecasts. Similarly, data on factory orders could also have an impact.

Don't forget about the speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly, which could also sway the markets.

Intraday Strategy:

I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 in continuation of the downward trend.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point reaches the 155.45 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.95 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.95, I will exit my buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback from that level. The pair can be expected to rise only after strong U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.14 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. You can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 155.45 and 155.95.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 155.14 (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.60, where I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point retracement. Selling pressure on the pair today is likely only after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.45 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.14 and 154.60.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Approximate price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Approximate price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Be very cautious when making market entry decisions.
• Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings.
• If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

For successful trading, it's essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.