Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The 153.68 price test in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, a strong upward movement did not materialize, leading to position liquidation at a loss.

In addition to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI, which could cause significant volatility, traders should also pay attention to speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is known for his balanced and pragmatic economic outlook. Unlike Jerome Powell, Bostic is often more open about possible scenarios and preferred policy strategies.

Bostic's assessment of inflation will be particularly important. If he highlights challenges in achieving the 2% target, his remarks may have a stronger impact on the market than Powell's standard statements. Additionally, his views on the labor market will be crucial, as a strong labor market could maintain inflationary pressures.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1, despite MACD readings, as I expect a strong directional move.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY today is planned at 153.78 (green line on the chart) with a target of 154.35. At 154.35, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish scenario is only likely after higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if 153.44 is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward 153.78 and 154.35 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY today is planned after breaking below 153.44 (red line on the chart). The target is 152.87, where I will exit short positions and enter long positions immediately (expecting a 20-25 point retracement). Bearish pressure may increase following weak U.S. data.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if 153.78 is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 153.44 and 152.87 is expected.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin Green Line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Suggested Take Profit level, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Suggested Take Profit level, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Be cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before high-impact fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. Always use stop-loss orders. Trading without stop-losses can quickly deplete your account, especially when trading large volumes without proper risk management.

Follow a structured trading plan. As demonstrated above, random decision-making based on short-term market fluctuations is a losing strategy for intraday traders.