Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The 1.2918 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The 1.2890 test coincided with the MACD beginning its downward move from the zero mark, confirming the validity of the short entry and leading to a 20+ point decline.

Buyers of the British pound faced resistance around 1.2920. For further growth, the pound likely needs a fresh catalyst—either stronger UK economic data or a weakening U.S. dollar. For now, consolidation near current levels seems logical. A break above 1.2920 could open the door to 1.3000, but this would require strong buying pressure. Otherwise, a correction toward 1.2850 and 1.2800 appears likely. Market attention remains focused on macroeconomic data and central bank statements.

During the U.S. session, key reports include weekly jobless claims and a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. The jobless claims report is often viewed as a leading indicator of labor market trends. Additionally, non-manufacturing labor productivity and unit labor cost data will be released—both critical for assessing inflationary pressure and corporate competitiveness.

Waller's speech will also be significant. Given the ongoing debate about U.S. monetary policy, his comments—especially on potential rate cuts—could significantly impact market sentiment.

For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy GBP/USD at 1.2894 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 1.2936 (thicker green line). At 1.2936, I will exit long positions and open shorts, anticipating a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish move today depends on weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above zero and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying if GBP/USD tests 1.2862 twice, with MACD in oversold territory. This would limit downside risks and signal a potential reversal upward. Expected targets: 1.2894 and 1.2936.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell GBP/USD if the price breaks below 1.2862 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a quick decline. The primary downward target is 1.2817, where I will exit shorts and initiate long positions, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. A bearish move would be supported by strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another short opportunity arises if GBP/USD tests 1.2894 twice, with MACD in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets: 1.2862 and 1.2817.

Chart Key

• Thin green line: Entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Crucial for identifying overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Forex trading requires caution when making trade entries. It is best to stay out of the market before major economic reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially when trading large positions without proper risk management.

To trade successfully, always follow a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading based on short-term market moves is a losing strategy for intraday traders.