Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0455 price level coincided with the moment the MACD indicator began to decline from the zero mark, which confirmed a suitable entry point for selling the euro. Consequently, the currency pair dropped by 10 pips before the pressure eased.

During the U.S. trading session, pressure on the EUR/USD pair emerged following Donald Trump's comments about a potential 25% tariff on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. This announcement sparked new concerns about a possible trade war between the U.S. and Europe, immediately affecting investor sentiment and putting pressure on the euro. Traders are now closely monitoring further statements from U.S. officials and updates on trade negotiations between the U.S. and Europe.

Today, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected. Economists closely monitor this indicator as it often serves as a leading signal for consumer price inflation. A sharp increase in PPI may indicate that businesses will need to pass their rising costs on to consumers, which would create inflationary pressure. Particular attention will be paid to the index's energy and raw materials components. A significant increase in these categories could signal potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks, impacting the region's economic stability. Any deviation from expected values could trigger volatility in financial markets.

At the same time, if the data exceeds expectations or the European Commission presents a more optimistic economic outlook, the euro may receive support and attempt to recover some of its lost positions. However, given ongoing uncertainty regarding the energy situation in Europe, any recovery in the euro is likely to remain limited.

I will focus primarily on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching 1.0468 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0501. At 1.0501, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip movement from the entry point. A euro rally in the first half of the day can be expected only if Germany releases strong economic data. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.0448 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The expected price targets are 1.0468 and 1.0501.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0448 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0418, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip reversal. Selling pressure on the pair will likely return if today's economic data is particularly weak. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.0468 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. The expected price targets are 1.0448 and 1.0418.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.