Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 148.72 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the US dollar. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 149.64.

Today's robust data on the services sector activity index, along with a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, prompted new purchases of the yen during Asian trading hours. Investors viewed Ueda's remarks as a potential indication of upcoming changes in monetary policy, which in turn strengthened the yen against the US dollar.

Economic indicators exceeding expectations boosted confidence in Japan's economic resilience, fueling demand for the national currency. The BOJ's further tightening of monetary policy could lead to even greater yen appreciation in the medium term. However, risks remain, including global economic instability and a potential world economy slowdown, which could pressure Japanese exports and weaken the yen.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 149.99 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 150.82 (thicker green line). Around 150.82, I plan to exit my buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant declines in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.46 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 149.99 and 150.82 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after it breaks below 149.46 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.76, where I plan to exit my sell positions and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip pullback. Selling pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.99 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 149.46 and 148.76 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.