Analysis of Wednesday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement without any pause. In fact, there's no need to analyze the macroeconomic context, as it does not explain the current decline of the U.S. dollar. As we noted on Monday, the reports published recently could not have triggered such a significant strengthening of the euro. The situation on Tuesday and Wednesday was similar. The dollar has lost 400 pips in just three days, and it's worth asking what caused this decline. Was it due to business activity indices? Interestingly, yesterday's U.S. ISM Services PMI came in better than expected.

Therefore, the dollar's current decrease can be attributed to a single factor: Donald Trump. The market is reacting strongly to his ongoing tariffs, threats, ultimatums, and insults aimed at various parties. At this point, there is a general reluctance to engage with the U.S. dollar.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, several trading signals were identified. First, the currency pair broke above the 1.0678 level and then rebounded from above that level. Following this, it broke through the range of 1.0726 to 1.0733. As a result, novice traders could have opened at least three buy trades, with two of them likely to be profitable.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to follow a medium-term downtrend. The current fundamental and macroeconomic factors overwhelmingly favor the U.S. dollar over the euro, leading us to anticipate further declines. However, we might observe several temporary trends on the hourly chart before the main downtrend resumes. Currently, it appears the euro is not rising; instead, the dollar is weakening, influenced by Donald Trump's actions.

On Thursday, the euro could fluctuate in either direction, but it is more likely to rise. The prevailing macroeconomic context seems to have little impact at this moment, and nobody can predict the statements Trump might make.

In the 5-minute timeframe, key levels to monitor are 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0334-1.0359, 1.0433-1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, and 1.0845-1.0851. On Thursday, there will be a European Central Bank meeting, and there is a 99% chance that interest rates will be cut. Is there anyone who believes the euro will stop rising? The pair may experience a brief pullback, but ultimately, Donald Trump will continue to influence market movements.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.