Trade Analysis and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The first test of the 1.0421 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.0421, which occurred shortly after, coincided with MACD being in the oversold zone, allowing Scenario #2 for buying to materialize, leading to a 20-point price increase.

The current situation in the forex market reflects a cautious approach among traders. Market participants are waiting, observing developments, and analyzing economic data, which undoubtedly impacts the liquidity and volatility of the EUR/USD pair. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, which traditionally exerts significant influence on the market, traders prefer a cautious stance. Yesterday's attempts by the bears to pressure the euro were evidently unsuccessful, as sellers encountered a strong support level preventing a further downward correction.

In the first half of the day, market attention will be focused on key indicators, including Germany's consumer climate index. These figures could significantly impact market sentiment and potentially strengthen the euro. If the data shows improvement, it may indicate rising consumer confidence, which in turn supports the currency.

Another important metric is the M3 money supply growth in the Eurozone. An increase in this indicator may signal rising lending activity and economic growth, attracting investor interest in the euro. Combined with an increase in private sector credit, these figures could reinforce positive sentiment among buyers.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today at 1.0453 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0491. At 1.0491, I plan to exit the market and open a sell trade in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point retracement from the entry point. The euro's upward movement in the first half of the day will depend on strong economic data.Important! Before buying, ensure that MACD is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the 1.0427 level is tested twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upward. Expected target levels: 1.0453 and 1.0491.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after 1.0427 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.0387, where I will exit the market and immediately open a buy trade in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point retracement from the level). Downward pressure on the pair could return at any moment.Important! Before selling, ensure that MACD is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if 1.0453 is tested twice in a row, while MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal to the downward. Expected target levels: 1.0427 and 1.0387.

Chart Breakdown:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price for buy trades.
• Thick Green Line – Take Profit zone for buy trades or a manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price for sell trades.
• Thick Red Line – Take Profit zone for sell trades or a manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Overbought and oversold zones should be considered before entering a trade.

Key Trading Recommendations for Beginners:

• Exercise Caution when making market entries. Avoid trading ahead of major economic reports to prevent losses due to sharp price fluctuations.
• If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes.
• Have a Clear Trading Plan – Like the one outlined above. Avoid spontaneous trades based on short-term market movements, as this strategy is inherently unprofitable for intraday traders.