Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Friday's economic calendar is packed with events, but none are particularly critical. In Germany, reports on unemployment, inflation, and retail sales will be released. While these figures are significant locally, they pertain only to one of the 27 EU countries, suggesting that market reactions may be limited. The inflation report is particularly noteworthy, as it could offer insights regarding the upcoming eurozone inflation data.

In the U.S., data on personal income and spending will be published, alongside the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index. Many analysts view this index as crucial and consider it the "Federal Reserve's favorite," although we do not share that view. It rarely produces impactful numbers, and the market tends to pay more attention to overall and core inflation.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Friday, notable events include speeches from Austan Goolsbee, a representative of the Fed, and Dave Ramsden from the Bank of England. However, it's important to emphasize that the market currently does not face significant uncertainties regarding monetary policy in the UK, EU, or the U.S. While there are some concerns about the BoE—particularly in relation to the latest UK inflation report, which could impact its outlook for 2025—representatives from the BoE have not yet commented on the report. Therefore, there is no expectation of a policy shift at this time.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the new week, both currency pairs are likely to trade lower, as many factors indicate this trend. We believe the euro and pound should have begun declining as early as last week. Currently, there are no significant obstacles preventing this downward movement.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.