Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The 148.95 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark. In the context of the dollar's downtrend, this confirmed a valid short entry, leading to a 70+ point decline.

The dovish speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller today could be the main driver of the dollar's decline. If Waller signals an intention to lower interest rates, it may further weaken investor sentiment toward the dollar, which has already lost favor in recent weeks. A more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could support risk assets, including the Japanese yen.

Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims and U.S. non-manufacturing labor productivity data are unlikely to have a significant impact on USD/JPY.

For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at 148.29 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 149.04 (thicker green line). At 149.04, I will exit long positions and open shorts, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish move today would be a corrective rebound within a broader downtrend.Important: Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above zero and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying if USD/JPY tests 147.62 twice, with MACD in oversold territory. This would limit downside risks and signal a potential reversal upward. Expected targets: 148.29 and 149.04.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY if the price breaks below 147.62 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a quick decline. The primary downward target is 146.89, where I will exit shorts and initiate long positions, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. A bearish move would be supported by strong U.S. data or an acceleration in risk-off sentiment.Important: Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another short opportunity arises if USD/JPY tests 148.29 twice, with MACD in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets: 147.62 and 146.89.

Chart Key

• Thin green line: Entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Crucial for identifying overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Forex trading requires caution when making trade entries. It is best to stay out of the market before major economic reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially when trading large positions without proper risk management.

To trade successfully, always follow a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading based on short-term market moves is a losing strategy for intraday traders.