Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The 147.63 level was tested when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. The second test of 147.63, with MACD in oversold territory, allowed Scenario #2 for buying the dollar to unfold, leading to a rise towards 148.29.

Obvious pressure on the U.S. dollar persists despite yesterday's correction of the pair in the second half of the day. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts in the near future is gradually increasing, as is the pressure on the dollar against the yen.

Weak macroeconomic data from the U.S., especially in the employment and manufacturing sectors, fuels expectations of a softer monetary policy. Investors are closely monitoring signals from Federal Reserve officials, trying to anticipate when the Fed may ease lending conditions.

The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is supported by speculation about possible future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Rising inflation in Japan and discussions about revising its target level create expectations for tighter monetary policy, making the yen more attractive to investors.

For intraday trading, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY is possible upon reaching 147.77, targeting 148.30. At 148.30, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30–35 point retracement. Buying the pair is preferable during corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests 147.41 twice, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Expected growth targets: 147.77 and 148.30.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is possible after breaking 147.41, which could trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.89, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 point retracement. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Key Chart Elements

The thin green line marks the entry price for buying the instrument. The thick green line represents a potential Take Profit level or an area where profit should be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

The thin red line marks the entry price for selling the instrument. The thick red line represents a potential Take Profit level or an area where profit should be locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

The MACD indicator is crucial for determining overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

New traders should be extremely cautious when entering trades. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's often best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize risk. Trading without stop-loss protection can result in significant losses, especially when using large positions and poor money management strategies.

For successful trading, having a well-defined trading plan is crucial—similar to the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally an unsuccessful strategy for intraday traders.