Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.47 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed a good downward move in the pair.

Today, there are no economic reports from the U.S., meaning nothing will prevent further selling of the dollar ahead of the expected interest rate hike in Japan. However, be cautious and avoid selling at the daily low. It is best to sell on pullbacks.

Given the anticipated tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, selling pressure on the dollar may intensify at any moment. Investors are locking in profits, creating favorable conditions for selling the dollar at local highs. However, market volatility remains a factor, and unexpected geopolitical events or statements from the White House could alter forecasts. Therefore, it is advisable to use stop-loss orders to manage potential risks.

For intraday strategy, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY is possible at 147.37 (green line on the chart), with a target of 148.12. At 148.12, I plan to exit long positions and sell the pair for a 30–35 point pullback. The pair's rise is expected as part of a short-term upward correction.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.86 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside, targeting 147.37 and 148.12.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is planned if the price drops to 146.86 (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.18, where I plan to exit shorts and buy for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure could increase at any moment.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 147.37, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside, targeting 146.86 and 146.18.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Suggested Take Profit level or an area to exit long positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Suggested Take Profit level or an area to exit short positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Be cautious when making trading decisions. Before major economic reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. Always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapidly losing your entire deposit, especially if you use large trading volumes and ignore money management principles.

A clear trading plan is essential for success. Following a structured approach, such as the one outlined above, is far more effective than making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.